By Bence Selmeczi | This was the first election when the incumbent Chancellor did not run and the serious question arose as to who would be Merkel’s successor, Scholz or Laschet. The decision was made; however, we are far from the final results. As previously predicted, conservative forces will have tough times after losing Angela Merkel whose successor is going to find himself in a very hard situation.
On the evening of September 26, shortly after the announcement of the election results, a kind of statemate developed. On the eve of the election, CDU and SPD drove head-to-head, eventually SPD overtook CDU. The loser of the current election is clearly CDU, AfD and Linke. Linke had just made it to the Bundestag, and AfD had lost some of its voters, only in the usual citadels – especially in East-Germany – was able to achieve significant results. The two clear winners of the election are SPD and the Greens – the latter have previously understood that they can only have a coalition role.
Even though the results of the elections are known, the future is still questionable. It is hampered by the fact that both Scholz and Laschet have voiced their ambition that they both want to break into chancellor laurels. Although SPD performed better than CDU, mathematically, CDU may also have a chance to form a government. SPD-led coalition is supported by Scholz’s very high level of support, the spectacular advancement of SDP, and CDU-changing atmosphere in some parts of the country. A new government mandate would prevent the crisis of the two union parties, CDU, and CSU, and Laschet’s guaranteed party presidency. In the case of CDU and SPD, the grand coalition can be almost completely ruled out, SPD and CDU repel the grand coalition. A tripartite coalition cannot be ruled out either and the Greens must be reckoned with.
German elections are the first in the following months’ elections, France, Hungary, Czech Republic are going to follow Germany. Within one year, Europe may be either renewed or remained as it was. There are no easy times in politics, but these recent years were aggravated by a never seen crisis and predicting how the often depressed voters that many of them lived financial difficulties because of COVID would vote seems impossible. No pressure, but Europe’s future is at stake.
Bence Selmeczi is a member of the communication and analysis team of the Political Network for Values.